Russ Schumacher, Colorado State Climatologist, Updated Lower Ark on Ongoing Drought

By Norman Kincaide

After the Pledge of Allegiance, Lower Arkansas Water Conservancy District came to order at 10:30 A.M. April 15, 2026. After a quorum was established, the board recessed to the Enterprise meeting, approved routine items then adjourned. The regular board meeting reconvened. Visitors were introduced and routine items were approved. There were no committee or legal reports.

Under General Manager’s Reports, via Zoom, Russ Schumacher, CSU Professor and Colorado State Climatologist, gave a presentation: Status and outlook for the ongoing drought. This year’s mountain snowpack has been the lowest on record for Colorado. Statewide, median snow water equivalent (SWE) as of April 13, was 19%. For the Arkansas River Basin, the SWE for that date was 10%. The peak snowpack was very low, 51% of average statewide and a month early, followed by rapid melting in the unprecedented March heat wave. In the Arkansas River Basin peak snowpack was 38% of median on March 10^th.

At sixty out of sixty-four measuring locations across Colorado with fifty years of data, 2026 had the lowest SWE on April 1. The worst years for snowpack in recent times were 1977, 1981, 2002, and 2012. As of April 1, 2026, this year is well below all of those years. In the Arkansas River Basin on April 1, SWE at snow courses was far below 1977, 2012, and 2018.

This year has been the warmest on record thus far. Throughout much of Colorado, March 2026 had a week’s worth of days warmer than any March in the last fifty years. There were not quite as many in southeastern Colorado, but the previous March record, 96 degrees at Holly in 1907, was broken at 99 degrees in Burlington and Campo.

The first half of the 2026 water year was 7.7 degrees warmer than the Twentieth Century average, 6.3 F above the 1991-2020 average and 2.8 degrees warmer than any previous October through March period. This water year also tied for the eighth driest start to a water year.

Remaining snowpack at Fremont Pass is still seven feet, five inches. Meanwhile, there is not much at the other stations in the Arkansas River Basin. Fremont Pass does not typically peak until mid-May and did not see such rapid melt as lower elevations in March.

Owing to the low snowpack, water supply forecasts for spring and summer are extremely low across the Colorado River Basin and for other basins as well. This is the lowest April 1 forecast that the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has issued for the Colorado River going back to 1991. If the current forecast is correct, flows into Lake Powell would be slightly better than 1977 and 2002. There is a decent chance, however, that it will end up lower than those years.

The Arkansas Basin River Forecast Center water supply forecast April through September 2026, shows 38% of average at Salida and 42% of average at Pueblo Reservoir inflow resulting in a deficit of 255,000 acre feet. The Arkansas River at Las Animas is forecast at 55% of average and the Purgatoire River at Las Animas at 30% of average. The current United States drought monitor for Colorado indicates moderate to severe drought in southeastern Colorado.

Chairman, Leroy Mauch and Jack Goble, General Manager, study slides detailing the status of the ongoing drought, April 15, 2026

There are indications for a very active monsoon season affecting the states in the Rocky Mountain region. La Nina is finished. There is a 61% chance El Nino will likely emerge later this year with the possibility of being strong, rising to the level of Super El Nino. But probably will arrive too late to help the spring-summer water supply. El Nino may provide some relief by late summer or autumn.

The major indications for Water Year 2026 are, it has been by far the warmest on record, with temperatures in March rewriting the record books for early spring warmth. Since the big rainfall and flood in October, precipitation has been below average in most of Colorado. Southeastern Colorado did better than some areas in terms of winter precipitation, but average winter precipitation is not that much water.

Mountain snowpack is the lowest on record for early April. The Arkansas River Basin is in especially poor shape. As a consequence, significant drought impacts are expected in the next few months. Again, La Nina is out and El Nino is emerging. An active monsoon season may give rise to some reason for optimism in the long term. This drought is already affecting the wheat harvest near Dalhart, Texas, as farmers prepare to disc under a crop that will not mature.

Brad Lubbers gave a presentation on Water Quality Grant BMP site selections. The parameters for 319 Grant are cost sharing with project and producers; producers are required to put up a new sprinkler; all applicants are catalogued by application date: first come, first option to be selected; producer covers the cost to install a center pivot: $125,000 up to $200,000. Lower Ark continues to have more applications than projects, with approximately twenty-five applicants in an unfunded pool.

There are three current grant projects: 2024 319 Grant in progress, seven sprinkler projects and one pond liner project complete with post improvement sampling ongoing. The 2025 319 Grant in progress there are four sprinkler projects, the last of which is very close to completion. The 319 Grant selection project for 2026 are four sprinkler and two riparian buffer areas. There is one pending 319 Grant for 2027. The grant recipients are Ed King, sprinkler improvement, west of La Junta, borders against the Arkansas River; Norma Smart, sprinkler improvement, northeast of Hasty; Lance Jagers, sprinkler improvement, east of McClave; May Farms, sprinkler improvement and riparian buffer strips, northeast of Lamar. All producers will cost share.

Under board actions, the Water Quality grant selections were approved as was the Lower Ark sponsorship and donation policy.

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Under public comment, Norman Kincaide distributed copies of the Wednesday, April 8, 2026 edition of the Rocky Ford Daily Gazette containing the article: “Purgatoire River FOIA Documents Disclose Study Issues,” to Lower Ark board members. Kincaide also provided a link to General Manager, Jack Goble, to the Cimarron and Comanche National Grassland Freedom of Information Act document drop received on March 25, 2026 from the United States Forest Service to be disseminated to board members and staff. Meeting adjourned.

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