Lower Ark Receives Drought Up-Date & Forecast

By Norman Kincaide

After the Pledge of Allegiance, Lower Arkansas Water Conservancy District came to order at 10:30 A.M., August 19, 2026. After a quorum was established, the board recessed to the Enterprise meeting to approve routine items, which were moved, seconded and passed. The Enterprise meeting adjourned and the regular board meeting reconvened. Visitors were introduced and routine items moved, seconded and approved. There were no committee or legal reports.

Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District board members view slide from Peter Goble's presentation

Under General Manager’s Reports, Peter Goble, Assistant State Climatologist, Colorado Climate Center, presented: Lower Ark Drought Conditions Update and Seasonal Outlook, 8/19/2026. For the Colorado Water Year that begins in October 2025, temperatures were above 1991-2020 average, with a very warm December and early January, a warm February followed by an extremely hot March with record highs. April through the middle of August were closer to the average. There was record warmth going back to 1940s, this being the sixth driest on record for the water year to date going back to the 1940s. The top three worst years were: 2002, 2013, 2012. There is more limited data from dust bowl times, but 1935 and 1937 were terrible. This water year was the worst snowpack year on record for the Arkansas River Basin; a nightmare for irrigators. Old snow survey records suggest that this year’s snowpack was worse than 1977 and 1981. Cumulative flows registered at Salida have been worse than 2002 in the Arkansas River.

A valuable resource for farmers and ranchers concerning drought and water issues is CoAgMET which provides high quality data from across the eastern plains and is managed by Lane Simmons of Rocky Ford, CO.

The US Drought Monitor shows moderate to severe drought in the Lower Ark Basin, but extreme and exceptional drought in the Arkansas Headwaters. The Colorado Climate Center has received numerous complaints about the Drought Monitor this year from the Arkansas Basin. The Climate Center does not have the authority to change the drought map. The Center does, however, have the “ear” of the US Drought Monitor authors. Residents in the Arkansas River Basin are encouraged to send their drought impact reports to the Colorado Climate Center.

How bad is the drought really? From a meteorological and hydrological standpoint, precipitation is moderate to severe. But it has not been the worst growing season with several rounds of strong storms; not as bad as 2002, 2012/13, or in the 1930s. As for temperature, it was the hottest winter and spring and is on track for a top ten hot summer. This significantly impacts crop water usage and vegetation stress. This has been the highest evaporative demand in Rocky Ford since 2002.

For the snowpack, it was the worst that has ever been recorded in the Upper Arkansas Basin. With a resulting worst stream flow ever recorded in the Upper Arkansas River Basin. Which raises the question of how this drought impacted your farming and ranching operations compared to 2002 and 2012/13?

When will conditions improve in the next couple of weeks, months and in the long term. We have entered into a strong El Nino year with warmer than normal water over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This El Nino is highly likely to remain around at least through next spring. What does this mean for eastern Colorado? El Nino means a less active northern spur of the jet stream and a more active southern spur. This provides more chances for slow-moving, moisture laden low-pressure systems across Colorado. This raises the probability of a wet summer and a wet winter in the Lower Arkansas Basin. It is not significantly correlated with winter moisture in the Upper Arkansas Basin.

Dynamical seasonal forecast models have shown much more agreement than normal of increased chance of wetter than normal conditions for September to March. The prospects for improvement are strong. Even so, this does not guarantee anything, especially for ending the drought. The long-term indications are that Colorado is warming. Climate models predict this will continue with high confidence. All else being equal, warmer temperatures mean lower snowpack, earlier runoff, higher evaporative demand and lower summertime soil moisture. Whether El Nino delivers relief from the drought in the short term has a higher probability than extended relief in the long term.

Andrew Arnold gave a presentation for Pioneer Development Company via Zoom on the Southwest Pueblo Urban Renewal Plan. This involved the Jackson Ranch and Pueblo Recreation Resort annexations. Development challenges include lack of public infrastructure, water, sewer, road networks and stormwater drainage. State Highway 78, the Beulah Highway, is considered unsafe without significant traffic improvements such as signalized intersections. The total plan area comprises 890 acres and seven parcels, total actual value: $1,056,407; assessed and taxable value: $285,231. The conditions survey for Blighted Area Factors according to Colorado Revised Statute 31-25-103.2, finds predominance of defective or inadequate street layout; faulty lot layout in relation to size, adequacy, accessibility or usefulness; unsanitary or unsafe conditions; unusual topography or inadequate public improvements or utilities; and the existence of health, safety or welfare factors requiring high levels of municipal services or substantial underutilization or vacancy of sites, buildings or other improvements.

Under the development program summary, Phase 1 RV Park Development would create 300 residential units, 748 RV stalls and Park Model Cabins, with 6000 square feet of commercial retail space, with a total actual value (Pueblo County Assessor estimate) of $182,181,731. Phase 2, Jackson Ranch development would create 902 residential units, valued at $466,944,668. The public finance summary calculated over 25 years would bring real property tax value for local government of: $45,654,225; and taxable real property value for school district of: $49,299,799. Demographics of the development estimate over the next 25 years of 2,626 new permanent residents and 379 new students. This plan is not expected to generate significant impacts to Lower Ark either fiscally or to its infrastructure.

Water infrastructure would not present as great a problem as sewer connectivity. The nearest sewer line to the development area is 2 miles where the line stops in Pueblo. As far as water for the development, Pueblo is in good shape compared to other cities on the front range. The rolling nature of State Highway 78 presents traffic safety issues which would require signals in these areas. The project company has 25 years to develop this plan.

There were no board actions. Under public comment, Norman Kincaide spoke on his own behalf, concerning the Cimarron and Comanche National Grasslands Revised Management Plan process, in which the Forest Service has stated the Purgatoire River and Picket Wire Canyon is free flowing with one outstanding remarkable value and is Wild and Scenic River eligible. Kincaide wanted to know the opinion of the board, the general manager or the staff of the status of the Purgatoire River within the purview of the Lower Ark. From July 1, 2026 to August 15 the 9 Mile Dam gauge on the Purgatoire River registered zero cubic feet per second. After six days of 100-degree temperatures from August 8 through the 13^th, the Purgatoire was reduced to shrinking stagnant pools of water. This does not indicate a free-flowing water course. Ranchers are concerned this Wild & Scenic River designation will result in the incremental increase from the river corridor to the surrounding terrain. They remind the Forest Service that its function is multiple use and not preservation, which is the function of the National Park Service.

Jack Goble, General Manager Lower Ark, asked: “Who introduces the bill?” Rep. Jeff Hurd’s regional representative, Cathy Garcia-Winder replied: “The Forest Service initiates the bill, but it must be sponsored by a representative in order to be presented to Congress.” Rep. Hurd stated he would not sponsor a Wild & Scenic River bill for the Purgatoire River, since the Las Animas and Otero County Commissioners had passed resolutions opposing the designation. Kincaide asked if Lower Ark could render an opinion on the Purgatoire River’s eligibility, especially the “free flowing” aspect to the Forest Service that the Forest Service clings to for Wild & Scenic eligibility. Goble said he would draft an opinion letter and asked for the relevant email address to the Forest Service. As fate or fortune would have it, the Forest Service floated the Wild & Scenic River proposal during the worst water year ever recorded in Colorado and particularly for the Arkansas River Basin. While reservoirs across Colorado are being drawn down to critical levels and wild fires rage as well, the Forest Service searches for perennial water on the Purgatoire Rive and Picket Wire Canyon. Following these comments, the regular meeting then adjourned.